Risk-based planning: Cutting through delays in Welsh housing delivery

With housing need at an all-time high and delivery rates struggling to keep pace, the Welsh planning system must evolve to meet the moment.

We recently brought together housing associations, local authorities, housebuilders, and planning consultants for a cross-sector roundtable focused on one pressing question: how do we accelerate the delivery of homes in Wales?

That conversation revealed a striking level of consensus on the need to reduce complexity, introduce more proportionality, and take a more pragmatic, risk-based approach to planning.

This article is the first in a series where I’ll unpack the key insights shared during that session and offer legal and strategic perspectives on how the planning system in Wales can evolve to meet the scale of the housing challenge.

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According to industry data presented by Lichfields on behalf of the Home Builders Federation, approvals in Wales dropped by 25% in 2023–24, while 11 of 25 Local Development Plans are now time-expired, and 13 of 21 local planning authorities (LPAs) have delivered only half or less of their housing requirement over the past five years. These figures highlight the growing urgency behind system reform.

What’s the problem? A one-size-fits-all planning system

Currently, every application, from a single dwelling to a complex urban extension, can be subject to a similar level of scrutiny and resourcing, regardless of complexity or policy alignment. This creates a bottleneck in the system, drains planning department capacity, and often delays sustainable, policy-compliant developments that should be straightforward to progress.

With the vast majority of LPAs operating under significant resource pressure, it’s clear that a smarter, more proportionate system is needed.

Prioritising risk, not red tape

A risk-based planning model would involve stratifying applications based on key factors such as:

• Alignment with adopted Local Development Plans (LDPs)
• Scale and complexity
• Environmental and technical constraints
• Level of community or statutory objection

This would allow local authorities to prioritise officer time and scrutiny toward more contentious or novel schemes, while streamlining low-risk applications – such as reserved matters or outline consents on allocated land.

In practice, this could mean:

• Greater delegation of decision-making on low-risk or previously approved schemes
• Fewer planning conditions, particularly pre-commencement conditions
• Clear thresholds for when an application qualifies as “low risk”
• Fast-tracked decisions with published service standards

Reserved matters applications on allocated sites, especially those supported by a robust design code or pre-application advice, are strong candidates for this approach. These applications already sit within a known policy framework and should not face the same procedural hurdles as unallocated or speculative development.

Proportionality is key. Take ecology, for example. On smaller, low-impact schemes, why wait months for seasonal bat surveys when mitigation measures could be built in up front? A risk-based model would free up ecological and planning capacity to focus on schemes where the environmental impact is genuinely material, allowing the system to respond with more agility and fairness.

This kind of thinking could also apply to sustainable drainage, another known delay point for smaller projects. A clearer, risk-led approach, with predefined low-risk scenarios, could allow faster sign-off for schemes that pose minimal drainage concerns, reducing backlog without reducing standards.

Local authorities in England have begun experimenting with similar prioritisation frameworks, supported by Planning Performance Agreements and National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), which have helped streamline complex applications through targeted resource allocation. Wales has an opportunity to build a version of this model that fits our devolved policy context while achieving the same time-saving outcomes.

Benefits across the board

A move to risk-based planning is not about cutting corners – it’s about removing unnecessary friction from the delivery process. It offers:

• Faster, more predictable outcomes for developers
• Smarter use of limited public sector resource
• Encouragement of sustainable development by rewarding good practice
• Improved public confidence in a system that targets its efforts where they’re most needed

For housing associations and local authorities delivering social housing, a streamlined process can help unlock grant funding within tight timeframes, reduce delays in procurement, and bring high-quality homes online more quickly, something especially crucial given the growing reliance on temporary accommodation across Wales.

Developers, too, stand to gain. Reduced planning risk means stronger financial models, more confident investment decisions, and less capital tied up in prolonged applications. Ultimately, faster delivery benefits the end user: the families waiting for homes.

What’s needed from Welsh Government?

For this model to succeed, it requires more than good will. It demands clear guidance from Welsh Government, including:

• A national framework for assessing planning risk
• Legal backing for increased delegation and streamlined decision routes
• A cultural shift across local planning authorities to embrace proportionality

This guidance must be transparent, implementable, and accompanied by training and support for local planning teams. Officers need clarity on how to define, assess, and action “low-risk” applications, particularly where delegated authority is being expanded.

There is also a role for Welsh Government to incentivise early adoption through pilot programmes, performance funding, or Planning Delivery Grant reform. Where risk-based approaches succeed, their learnings should be shared widely across LPAs.

Crucially, the implementation of a risk-based approach must not be piecemeal. It must be consistent across Wales, with buy-in from both LPAs and the development sector.

How developers can prepare

We’re already advising clients on how to prepare for a more risk-based system. This includes:

• Aligning applications tightly with local policy
• Engaging early with planning officers to scope potential red flags
• Using Planning Performance Agreements to secure certainty
• Identifying opportunities to reduce conditions through legal precision

A practical first step for developers is to build a case for “low-risk” status into their planning statements and supporting documentation. Proactively referencing policy alignment, previous consents, or community engagement can help establish a strong narrative for fast-track consideration.

There’s also an opportunity to streamline legal agreements, for instance, using pre-agreed Section 106 templates or standardised clauses that reduce the negotiation burden. These strategies will not only speed up approvals but also support a more collaborative relationship with LPAs.

If and when this approach becomes formalised, early movers will benefit most.

Final thoughts

A risk-based model won’t solve every challenge in Welsh housing delivery, but it could provide a much-needed release valve for an overstretched system. It’s pragmatic, achievable, and widely supported by public and private stakeholders alike.

It’s also a key enabler of other housing delivery reforms: from unlocking brownfield land and reusing vacant properties, to maximising the impact of social housing grant and responding to the climate emergency through more efficient development pathways.

These reforms (risk-based planning, flexibility in funding, more pragmatic standards) are not isolated ideas. They’re part of a wider cross-sector movement to create a more responsive, proportionate and effective planning system. The insights gathered at our roundtable have now been captured and shared with Welsh Government’s housing taskforce, and we look forward to continuing that conversation with policymakers in the months ahead.